Yup... according to Chang and Baek, elite runners and swimmers will reach their performance potential somewhere between 7.5 and 10.5 years. To come to this conclusion, they performed non-linear regression analysis for 61 running and swimming events (from 1900 to 2009). What this means... if you're planning on getting your name in the books, the 2012 Olympics may be your last chance for a record-breaking performance! Lets hope they start changing some policies...
Ok, I'm going to have to go ahead and KIND OF agree with Michael Phelps on this one. Forget the "if we put our mind to it, we can do anything" line of reasoning... we'll stick with more concrete facts... don't these people know that you can't reach a limit, you can only approach it as time goes to infinity!?! Ok, all kidding and dorkiness aside, I agree with the researchers that the pace at which records are broken will slow. And I hypothesize that this will be more pronounced at shorter distance compared to longer ones due to physical limitations (I can't figure out what races they analyzed). However, I feel that a lot of "record breaking" performances depend on more than just biomechanics. I mean, they've already showed that things as simple as your position on the line can influence results. And, I have a sneaking suspicion that the people running/swimming with those "record setters" can have a large effect. I mean, the researchers do acknowledge that their model doesn't take into account everything, but I think it is a tad doom and gloom to say the least.
However, as a backup plan, I say we just start making up new races. I mean, the local "race circuit" has already adopted this strategy, I'm sure they wouldn't mind giving the IOC some tips. Or, maybe we could switch from m/km to yds/miles... or add some "obstacles" to things (always thought the steeplechase would be a lot better race if it was 1000m)... or or or
Anyone else have any thoughts on the matter?
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